Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- THE FREE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL
The Global Investment Markets This Week
Market Thumbnail: WEEK through 9/12/25:
WAITING FOR GODOT
Chairman “Godot” Powell is expected to show up any time now, cutting the Fed’s overnight rate by a quarter percent to 4.00%-4.25% when the FOMC next meets. It has definitely been a “buy the rumor” couple of weeks for stocks, but whether it morphs into a “sell the news” event next Wednesday remains to be seen. US small caps, after leading the way over US large caps up since April took a back seat this week. Foreign equities were solidly higher, with both Europe-Australia, Far East and Emerging Market indices registering decent gains. US Treasury bond prices rallied again pushing its two-week gain to 7% as lousy new job revisions cut close to a million jobs off last year’s payroll estimates. The 10-year US Treasury yield dropped 4.06%, and the 3-month cash yield rose to 3.93%. The Dollar had little impact on the gains in both commodities and oil -- or the solid gain in Moose favorite gold. It was the 2nd Risk-ON week in a row: US Stocks UP, Foreign Stocks UP, Bonds UP, and Gold UP. The Models: No change.
THE FREE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 9/12/25
Follow the Markets
THIS WEEK: Holding #1 Gold (GLD) since 8/28/25 @313.07 via buy-stop after switching out of #2 EFA.
There has been strong demand for gold on the rumor of a Fed rate cut over the past two weeks. Be ready for selling on the news, if only to alleviate GLD's overbought condition. Gold and all equities are more attractive than cash. Only very long bonds (EDV) are not bullish. Among equities foreign are more attractive than US, and among foreign, emerging markets are currently more attractive than developed.
THIS YEAR: Strong gold and weak US stocks put the Index model into gold from January through April helping us to avoid the March-April V-bottom in equities caused by the tariff announcement. Exiting gold, which had flattened by mid-May, for International stocks set up a period of vacillation between gold and international stocks that ended with a switch to gold in late August, ahead of the first Fed rate cut expected 9/18. With rate cuts, trillions in US federal deficit spending, and US tariffs continuing through September, foreign equities and hard assets appear to have the best future prospects.
PERFORMANCE YEAR-TO-DATE:
INDEX MOOSE 49.3%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) 13.9%
SPY BENCHMARK 12.2%
AOM (Moderate Growth) 9.1%
THE FREE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL is an ETF-based momentum-based market timing model that compares the relative strength of US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the best place to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.